(picture source: panoramic vision)
Economic Observer reporter Dong Ruiqiang recently, domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices hit a record high, since December, the price of liquefied natural gas has soared from 4000 yuan per ton to 10 thousand yuan, which caused widespread concern in the industry. According to the price information released by Yulin coal trading center, the highest receiving price of liquefied natural gas has risen to 12 thousand yuan per ton in December 18th, which means that the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas market is further increasing.
Economic Observer reporter learned from the National Bureau of statistics, in mid December and early December this year, the 50 important production market price, a 24 rise, while the liquefied natural gas prices rose 6.4%, coke rose 12.9%, rose 11.4% (high strength corrugated).
, in addition, according to the insiders, the domestic LNG price increase in December 19th was maintained at 200-700 yuan / ton. At present, the LNG price in the northern region is mostly 8500-9500 yuan / ton, and the LNG Export Price in Jiangsu and other places has exceeded 10000 yuan. Meanwhile, the international market of liquefied natural gas prices also increased simultaneously, and Singapore's LNG price rose to 10.26 US $1 million units last week, the highest level since January 2015.Behind the
12 26, China University of Petroleum professor Liu Yijun on the economic observer said, gas prices soared, partly because of the natural gas market supply and demand situation of lack of knowledge, lack of preparation; on the other hand is due to the economic recovery, industrial gas increase, which is caused by a lack of deep-seated reasons for natural gas supply.
"there is a reason for the downstream user's psychological expectations at work, for the protection of the winter to maintain normal production, increase the natural gas in advance procurement efforts, to reserve for the winter, which exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas in some extent." Liu Yijun said.Since
entered the heating season, the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been more innovative in November due to the increase in domestic demand for liquefied natural gas. According to China Customs data, LNG imports in November reached 4 million 60 thousand tons, up 53% over the previous year, a record high. In 1-11 months, LNG imports increased by 48.4%, reaching 33 million 130 thousand tons. In November, domestic gas production increased by 3% compared with the same period in the previous year, the highest since March.
www analyst Liu Guangbin believes that the domestic liquefied natural gas prices is the main reason causing the imbalance of supply and demand. This winter liquefied natural gas plant raw materials is limited, and the limited time of the earliest and biggest limited, its supply declined significantly. It is estimated that the average construction rate of the total liquefied natural gas plant is only about 50% this year, and this figure has been reduced to 32% in winter.
"and this year, the overall demand for natural gas is very obvious, which has also helped boost the demand for liquefied natural gas. Because natural gas supply is insufficient, many downstream end users will consider the use of liquefied natural gas to ensure production and normal operation. Regardless of the high price, they will consider purchasing, so LNG demand is still very strong. The unbalance between supply and demand caused by this increase and decrease will naturally cause a rapid rise in prices. " He said.
Liu Guangbin told the economic watch network that, in addition to the limited amount of raw materials needed for the liquefied natural gas plant, "three barrels of oil" also raised part of the price. Now the market is in short supply, and the cost of rising cost will naturally shift to downstream users. The price will naturally rise sharply, but this inflation will not last for a long time.
in addition, in the opinion of the National Energy Bureau deputy Zhang Yuqing winter, inadequate supply of natural gas is first due to the lag of natural gas peak shaving and emergency ability construction, a sharp increase in industrial enterprises and residential natural gas demand has far exceeded expectations, and the upstream gas production of raw materials for the reduction has also exacerbated the shortage of gas supply. He expects the domestic consumption of natural gas will continue to grow in the future.The general manager of
Elane shipping data division Lin Shulai for economic observer said, the price was mainly a question of supply and demand, natural gas pricing is relatively complex, the current domestic short-term supply, and consumption is very strong, the demand situation continues this caused a rapid rise in the price.
"from the present point of view, the country attaches great importance to environmental protection. As a clean energy, the proportion of natural gas in China's energy consumption will increase. Domestic natural gas is largely imported, and gas source support is also very important, but the construction of pipe network and storage facilities needs a certain period. In the past, there will be more or less tension in the natural gas supply in similar parts of the winter. " Lin Shu.
supply and demand tight balance will continue to continue
in terms of the imbalance between supply and demand, Liu Guangbin believes that the next step will gradually tend to a tight balance. He said the supply and demand situation is expected to last at least to around 3 and April next year. The supply is mainly due to national policies and joint guarantee measures. After preliminary calculation, the upstream gas gap of 60% has been replenish temporarily. Sinopec Tianjin LNG project will also be put into operation in January next year, and the outstanding problems will be gradual.
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