summary: a lot of people say that increasing interest rates is just unfavourable, which is totally nonsense
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| Zhang Yinyin
today, the leveraged game saw a news and was scared. Trillions of deposits "disappear".
actually the truth is not so exaggerated.
in the first 11 months of this year, the savings of residents were 700 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In the 1-11 month of this year, the residents' savings increased by 3 trillion and 820 billion yuan, and 4 trillion and 540 billion yuan was added in the same period last year. And people in the banking industry generally believe that a small increase in residential savings this year, up to a minimum of trillion.
media, when reporting the news, is worded and a little thriller.
but the thought of the report is interesting. Ordinarily residents deposit growth is weak, mainly because the house rose too fast, then the strict control and improve Shoufu, consumes just family savings. So there's no more money to save.
The "disappearance" of
1 and trillions of residents is in fact a complex
but the problem is, if we think house prices are high, the regulation is strict. By holding multiple sets of real estate, real estate owners, have high cash. The same is true of the fact. If they cash in, you should add a lot of money in the account.
reality is actually more complex. Some people do cash in (part of the money continue to invest or transfer), while some are late, and the sale is locked in both liquidity and prices.At the same time,
, from developer sentiment to home buyers, most people actually no longer have too much trust in the regulation. The only confidence is that house prices will never fall, even if the fall is a small fall and then a big rise. At present, there are still many empty battles and deadlock stages.
some funds are locked up, some people are not willing to cash in. Naturally, this part of the money has not been converted into a resident deposit.
above, the reporter's investigation also found that the savings deposits of residents have increased sharply this year, which is also related to the trend of stock market attracting diversion, savings and financial management.
which in turn reflects, although prices are still high, but relatively slow down the pace of rising, there are not many recent news that the Beijing second-hand house prices fell to 60 thousand yuan per square, Yanjiao housing prices almost halved. Most of the city is certainly not so exaggerated, or just need to have the drums.
however, although some city house prices still strong, but had the formidable ratio, always feel some coolness in Beijing. Since the house is not encouraged for the time being, we have to build a powerful capital. Then, the stock market diverts some of the residents' savings for granted.
at the same time, all kinds of financial earnings are affected by the high interest rate of the actual market, and the income is also much stronger than that of the bank deposits. It is unavoidable to go from the watch to the outside.This is the case with
, where the profits are higher, the money is quicker, and the money goes on at once.
2, why will the household deposit be ransacked by the house and be attracted by the stock market and financial management? Why is the house price still dead? Because the interest rate is low, it is slow to raise interest rates.
Ok, after the analysis of the above reasons, the leveraged game is certainly not satisfied. What I want to ask is why residents' deposits are attracted by the housing consumption, stock market and financial management on the one hand. On the other hand, they haven't enjoyed too much housing price appreciation, which has brought savings growth.The reason for
is the delay and no interest rate increase.
home price rise cycle, two things are driving factors: control relaxation, continuous reduction of interest rate. So in the second half of 2015, house prices began to start, and today the fire can not be said to be completely extinguished.After the
cut interest rates, buyers feel that the burden of buying houses is temporarily relaxed. Developers feel that funds are better. Local governments also feel less debt pressure. That's true for the time being. This is the soft budget constraint. Everyone likes to be loose and want to be irresponsible.
but I'm sorry, in a loose, low interest cycle. A person who plays the resources in institutions and hands. Soon, the house price rises, the spring river water warm duck prophet's self heat is not most just need, but has the ability, the capital, the conscious speculators.
because of them, because of their loose money, low interest, low risk and high leverage, real estate quickly became a wealth harvester.
's hard - earned money was swept away by the first pay, and even borrowed.
now, when the internal and external environment does not allow continued speculation, high housing prices threaten economic and social security, the regulation and control, real estate liquidity is locked. At this time, the money that had just been needed has been reaped once. The rest of the money, how to configure the assets? Only stock and money are left.For
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