Real estate cooling, in 2018, China's way of spending money will change!

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original title: real estate cooling, in 2018, China's way of spending will change!

/ ID:xiaobaiducaijing

if the biggest change in China's economy in 2017 is the change in the number of banknotes, the biggest change in 2018 may be a change in the way of spending money.

The growth of

's broad currency, M2, began to fall to the number of figures for the first time since May this year, marking the temporary end of the age of "water release". M2 is the sum of deposits and cash of residents + business + non bank financial institutions, which can be understood as the amount of money in the market. The increase or decrease of M2 can reflect the speed of banknote printing.

before May 2017, M2 growth rate generally maintained two digits, the highest in 2009 was 30%, the GDP growth is 9.4%, which tells us that the economic growth is mainly from the over currency. In the three quarter of this year, GDP was 6.8%, and the growth rate of M2 in November was 9.1%, indicating that the incremental funds in the market were very limited.

2017 central to the monetary policy tone is "adjust monetary gate", 2018 is "take control of the money supply, the total gate can be predicted, 2018 money supply will be more stringent will not be more loose.

, then, in 2018, if you want to achieve steady growth and established employment goals, you can only spend the money in stock.

How do you spend


government revenue comes mainly from two blocks:

is a general public budget income, and is mainly tax revenue. In the 1-11 months of this year, the total public budget revenue of the whole country is 161748 billion yuan (77390 yuan in the central area and 84358 billion in the area). In the 1-11 months, the total public budget expenditure in the whole country is 179560 billion yuan (25670 billion in the central area and 153890 billion in the area).

two is a government fund budget revenue, is mainly land leasing income, that is, land sale. In 1-11 months, the national government fund budget revenue was 49307 billion yuan (most of the income returned to the local), and the national government fund budget expenditure was 46188 billion yuan.

By comparing

, we find that the general public budget is in deficit, that is to say, it doesn't pay. Especially in the 1-11 months of the local government, the local revenue is 84358 billion, while the expenditure is up to 153890 billion.

government funds budget is surplus, but with the housing market regulation and volume decline, the land sales income in 2018 will definitely step on the brakes. The land finance will be more and more difficult to sustain.

In general, there are several solutions to the

financial gap:

1, the central government transfers the to the local area. Our tax structure is a tax sharing system. The result is that the central revenue is much less. The central surplus money is allocated to the local area through transfer payment, which is mainly used to fill the fiscal gap in areas with relatively weak financial strength.

2, tax refund , such as VAT refund, income tax base return, refined oil price and tax and tax reform, tax return three items, function and transfer payment is similar.

no matter which country, the government wants to spend money, the best way is through the promotion of economic growth in order to increase revenue, but Chinese economy has ended a period of rapid growth, the growth of more than 10% dropped to 6.8% now in high speed, short-term economic growth by expanding the tax base has been impossible.

with the United States in 2018 to begin large-scale tax cuts, the next year will be an outbreak of global tax cuts tide, in 2018 the domestic tax rate would decrease and won't rise, the result is to reduce government revenue, to the last resort the huge expenses is only maintained by! That is, the issuance of national debt and local debt.

According to the statistics, the total size of local government debt in 2014 was 15 trillion and 400 billion, 14 trillion and 750 billion in 2015 and 15 trillion and 320 billion in 2016. Of course, the government can not be self interested in borrowing money, and needs certain financial resources as support, such as tax revenue, land sales income and so on, respectively, as a guarantee for the issuance of general bonds and special bonds.

, a large part of funds for urban construction railways, highways and airports in recent years are derived from issuing bonds. However, too much government debt can not keep up with the excessive issuance of bonds, and there will always be huge risks, which will not make local finance go bankrupt.

economics often uses debt ratio to measure the reasonable degree of liabilities, that is, the debt balance /GDP. The international standard rate is about 60%, while the debt rate in China is about 42.1%, but there are also some areas beyond the warning line, such as Guizhou.

due to the tax collection system, local government spending more, less income, thus making the debt become the most efficient and effective way to develop the local government. How to rapid growth of the local debt brakes has been placed in front of the problem, the local debt, the Ministry of Finance recently issued relentless:

adhere to the principle of not rescuing the central local government, resolutely dispel said the central government will "pay" and "illusion", and resolutely discourage financial institutions that the government will reveal all the details of the "illusion".

these words mean, the local government dared in the case of limited financial resources to debt because they think that when the cash crisis occurred, the central government will help and reveal all the details, now made it very clear that, if you borrow money is not, then the bankruptcy will go bankrupt, be responsible for the consequences of debt.

of course, the Treasury is not

From: 房地产降温,2018年中国花钱方式将发生巨变!
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