The three or four line prices is a spent force, don't be disk access man

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original title: three or four line price is a spent force, don't be disk access man

is now on the dismantled people, who will pick them up in the future?

near the end of the year, regulators have lots of signals about the trend of real estate next year, but the most important and most important one is the 23 national housing and urban construction conference.


, we analyzed the real estate signals released by the Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference. Today we focus on the national housing and urban construction conference.

these three meetings are all in the same vein, but each meeting has a different degree of detail.

generally speaking, the more general the conference is, the lower the more detailed it is. If we sort according to the level of detail, it should be like this: the Politburo conference


, therefore, compared with the first two meetings, the information disclosed by the housing and urban construction work conference is more specific and clear, and a little speculation can help to figure out the trend of next year's real estate.


first looked at the general content of the conference:

1, accelerate the establishment of multi agent supply, multi-channel support, and hire purchase housing system.

has been mentioned several times before. The core information is the development of rental housing next year, which is the most important task in many cities.


develop the rental market to reduce the price of the house? Now it is unlikely, because the number is not enough to hit the commercial housing market, but the rent is likely to rise, and recently Beijing is an example.

2, to grasp the real estate market classification and control, generally speaking is "to support the needs of the first suite, the first suite of demand, curb speculation, the three or four line to focus on inventory." "

now, the price of second tier cities has been controlled by the way of restriction, loan limit and price fixing. In November, the statistics released by the Statistics Bureau showed that the three or four line price is still rising. Will inventory continue to rise next year? This is the key point of the analysis of today's article.

3, the conference also said that the improvement of urban planning and construction of beautiful countryside, and house prices next year is not very important, today's articles do not focus on the analysis.

so, after refining, this meeting is very "gold content" information in fact two, respectively, on the development of the leasing market and the classification and control.

on the regulation, a second line city housing price has been fixed, the rest is the three or four line city.

at present, there are two kinds of voice about the three or four line cities' house price trend. One thinks that going stock will promote the house price to go up. Another thinks that these cities are short of basic supporting factors, and the author tends to second kinds.


wants to find out that the three or four line urban house prices will rise or fall next year. First of all, it is necessary to know how the housing prices in these cities have risen in the past year.

Chinese now has a total of 338 prefecture level city, remove the 4 municipalities, 27 provincial capitals and 5 municipalities (Shenzhen, Xiamen, Dalian, Qingdao, Suzhou, Wuxi and Ningbo), Wenzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai and other second tier non capital city, the remaining more than 290 345 line city.

statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics of 70 cities in November showed that housing prices in the second tier cities have begun to decline slightly, but the three or four tier cities are still rising.

in fact, from the beginning of the end of 2016, the three or four line of the city housing prices began to fluctuate, and even the national poverty county prices doubled.

The most powerful areas for

rise are mainly around the metropolitan area, such as Hebei, Langfang, Beijing, Cangzhou and Zhangjiakou. Zhejiang Lishui and Jiangsu Changzhou are located in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

, the rise of housing prices in these three or four tier cities is mainly due to the spillover effect of big cities. Many buyers who cannot afford to buy houses in big cities or do not have housing qualifications are flocking to these cities.

some three or four line city, skyrocketing housing prices and shed the monetized resettlement of a great relationship.

, such as Jiangsu, shed 250 thousand new housing starts in 2016, and monetization resettlement in some cities reached 60% to 80%. In the first eight months of 2017, more than 230 thousand new housing projects were launched.

The repositioning of the

shed to monetization means that the government directly compensates for the residents of the demolished shantytowns in the form of money, and then the residents will purchase housing on the market of commodity houses.

The popular point of

is that shantytowns have been demolished, demolishing old houses, monetizing subsidies, giving money to the market to buy houses, which will inevitably lead to the imbalance between supply and demand in the housing market, resulting in the characteristic surge of the three or four line cities.

where the local government comes with so much money, from the PSL, launched by the central bank in 2014.

PSL is to supplement mortgage loans, bank lending to the CDB CDB through PSL, through the studio to change special loans loans to local government, the local government through the monetized resettlement of squatters to payment of compensation, relocation is completed, the local government land sales to repay after CDB loan repayment CDB central bank loans, to form a closed-loop flow of funds the.

data shows that the PSL balance has risen from 645 billion 900 million in May 2015 to 2.2 in February 2017.

From: 三四线房价已是强弩之末, 千万别当接盘侠
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