is in the European and American market Christmas vacation, the RMB went out of the "fierce" rise, going straight to the 6.5. What contributed to the surge in the wave of the renminbi? How long will the rise last?On 26
12, the intermediate price of RMB against the dollar was 6.5416, up 267 points from the previous trading day, a new high since September 13th. Dollar in the onshore official closing price reported 6.5440, compared with the previous day's official closing price fell 36 points; the offshore renminbi dollar remained at around 6.55, to maintain strong momentum. On December 25th Christmas, onshore Renminbi dollar rose nearly 400 points, the highest since September 15th refresh to 6.5387 days 6.57, 6.56, 6.55 Lianpo, 6.54 four mark; offshore renminbi dollar or expanded to more than 200 points, set over a 3 month high, approaching 6.54 mark.
a Chinese large financial marketing traders to the first financial reporter said that with the increase in U.S. interest rates fall, tax dollars and cash, no spikes, but go down, the RMB recent rapid breakdown of the 6.6 main market of $disappointment accumulation, led to the settlement amount increased, and the previously bet devaluation speculators out, and banks and other institutions since camp holding dollars will decline, all forces to jointly boost this wave of RMB rally.
can the renminbi remain strong? China world economic and Political Institute of Social Sciences International Investment Research Director Zhang Ming recently told the first financial reporter said that the introduction of counter cyclical factors completely reverses the devaluation of the yuan is expected in 2018, although the dollar may still be strong, but it is expected that the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 6.6~6.8.
enters Christmas week, and the main western countries are going to take the holiday holiday. From around December 20th, the RMB began to quickly pull up, and in 21 days, the minimum dollar against the RMB reached 6.55, and is still stable below 6.6.
industry insiders believe that, in general, the rapid rise of no more than three reasons: one is the emergence of large scale settlement off the disk, resulting in a short period of time the banking exchange surplus rose sharply; two is the majority of investors for RMB appreciation confidence, consistent dollar selling market in the short term there is three; the central bank into the city actively pulls rmb.
, however, the mainstream view excludes the possibility of third types of central bank intervention. "Intervention is not necessary. The ultimate purpose of the central bank directly into the market exchange rate regulation point is to ensure the smooth operation of the international balance of payments security and market transactions, and since September, the Renminbi remained sideways, foreign exchange body is more balanced, foreign exchange reserves decline has been reversed, the RMB against the U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rate in 6.65 or 6.55, there is no essential difference the central bank, because various macro monitoring indicators in China at present there is no sign of the international balance of payments security and market suffered a major impact, at this time to take the initiative to move up the renminbi "have no justifiable reason for the war."." Senior foreign exchange personage Han Hui Division said.In comparison with
, the first and second reasons exist. The first possibility, approaching the end of the year, enterprises of various expenditure requirements including bonuses increase may lead to Centralized Settlement in the short term, the foreign exchange surplus suddenly increased; while the second possibility is lost due to the dollar is expected to rise, leading to the market from both psychological and behavioral appeared defection.
simply speaking, for now, the willingness of institutions to hold us dollars is decreasing. After all, the two advantages of short-term tax reform and interest rate increase have already been fulfilled, and the US dollar seems not to be buying on the trend.Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at
FXTM rich, said to the first financial reporter, "because, as expected, the good news has been digested. News to stimulate the long-term bond yields soared to $favorable, because the Fed next year to tighten policy should become more active. However, in fact, the dollar does not react much to it. The United States has the lack of financial support, the future will be a substantial increase in the amount of bonds issued, which may make long-term bonds less attractive, as other major central banks are also trying to keep up with the Fed's interest rate hike in 2018, Europe and other markets, bond yields will rise to feed, narrowing interest rate differentials."
recently, the main content of the tax reform bill passed by the US Congress includes the highest personal income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%, and the highest corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
, in addition, the recent US economic data are not ideal. The real GDP in the third quarter quarter final value was revised down to 3.2%, less than expected in the third quarter of 3.3%; real personal consumption expenditures quarter rate value of 2.2%, less than the expected 2.3%; U.S. November core PCE price index rose 1.5%, the Fed has not yet reached the target of 2%.
dollar is entangled inDespite the recent $
does not blossom, but the reporter interviewed a number of foreign exchange traders found that most still bullish performance in 2018, although a few weeks before buying dollar account Fukui, but the Ministry of
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