Lian Ping: 2018 monetary policy tightening smaller probability

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original title: Lian Ping: 2018 monetary policy tightening low probability of


fed continues to raise interest rates, making the future monetary policy of the Central Bank of China pay much attention to the market. In December 23rd held the "national research think tank forum 2017 annual evaluation of non-performing assets China summit, chief economist at Bank of communications in the coming year Chinese Lianping monetary policy.

before the prospect of monetary policy, even to talk about is closely related with the interest rate market. He believes that the next period of time, the interest rate market will further promote and basically completed, at present our banking loans to keep the benchmark interest rate is determined by the central bank, from the market operation system of developed countries, or to see the market economy itself inherent logic, this phenomenon is not the final version of the marketization of interest rate.

, of course, will be more prudent in the future. The first step is to further merge all grades of the current deposit and loan benchmark interest rates of commercial banks, which has been merged once in the past years. In the future, we may reform to deposit only one deposit and loan, that is, the benchmark interest rate of one year. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen the market pricing ability of financial institutions in the future. Financial institutions should gradually weaken the policy dependence on the central bank's benchmark deposit and lending rates, until finally, cancel them. This will have a profound impact on the banking industry.


2013, the bank's deposit and loan spreads have narrowed obviously, but the main driving factor for the narrowing is not interest rate marketization, but the impact of monetary policy. To cut interest rates six times in early 2016 by the end of 2014, the contraction of bank deposit rate, not because of the asymmetric interest rate adjustment, but because banks have a considerable scale of demand deposits, deposit interest rate level is very low, so the decline in lending rates has narrowed between the current deposit and loan interest rate gap.

Lian Ping believes that if the benchmark interest rate further merging, continue to promote the interest rate market, the interest rate differential pressure will be the main source of income for banks. Competition will lead to a decline in loan interest rates, and competition will lead to a tendency to increase the interest rate of the deposit.

's monetary policy, which is highly related to the interest rate, involves the total amount of credit and the total liquidity management in the whole process of economic operation. However, monetary policy is not aimed at financial institutions. Monetary policy measures affect the whole macro-economy through financial institutions. There are four main goals: economic growth, full employment, currency stability and balance of payments. But in the process of implementation, monetary policy is mainly through the financial institutions, especially commercial banks to influence the whole economy.

on the whole, even that next phase of monetary policy steady lured. This is in many respects seems to have reflected, one is for the formulation of monetary policy, prudent monetary policy to maintain a neutral, not a massive easing avoid leaning to either side, and to take control of the total valve money; on the other hand, when the water, or when the need to provide flexibility, also need to be supported.

is worth mentioning that financial leverage and overall prevention and control risk are the keynote of financial regulation. There is no doubt that increasing leverage and releasing more water is not a good option. However, loosing does not mean that monetary policy will further tighten. Under the current circumstances, the implementation of macro Prudential policy, the strengthening of supervision and the further implementation of micro prudential supervision will objectively bring about a tightening impact on the financial industry. In the case of the superposition of the above three, the further tightening of monetary policy is not the first choice.

the above several aspects, Lian Ping believes that in 2018 the overall monetary policy will be less likely to stabilize, further tightening. return to the Sohu, see more


From: 连平:2018年货币政策收紧概率较小
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