And then decrypt: how to make you care?

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original title: Xueersi decryption: how to let you go?

highly dispersed education industry

education has always been an extremely dispersed industry. Because of its number of person + non - standardized business model, the scale economy is not obvious in the education industry.

K12 compared to the art education, children education, as more standardized and easy examination (a syllabus) (see performance), relatively higher degree of concentration. But even so, K12 has a big study, and a good future with new orient is only about 3%.

Comprehensive prediction of

number of research institutions, the current K12 tutoring permeability should accordingly estimated at around 22%, at present, the market size should be about 400 billion yuan. Think of 2017 fiscal year revenue of $1 billion 40 million, accounting for about 1.75% of the market share of K12 extracurricular education. Then according to the current pace of development, by the end of 2020, and a market share can reach 3%.

Figure 1 shares (also known as the good future, listing code TAL.N)

learning and thinking "and" future "mix

The growth of

industry is mainly derived from three aspects:

one is the promotion of the unit price. The per capita disposable income of is increasing, making parents have the ability to pay higher prices for extracurricular training. This makes extra-curricular training still have much room to raise prices, especially for small class with lower price. The price of small class is only 1/5 of one to one 1/3, and parents are not sensitive to price changes.

two is the promotion of the permeability of extracurricular training. The increase in per capita income of makes it possible for more parents to get their children out of class training classes. In addition, a diverse mix of selective courses under the background of the reform of college entrance examination also encourage students to more personalized learning outside the classroom, promoted to enhance penetration.

three is the increase in the number of schools in primary and secondary schools. Although is affected by long term family planning, the number of students in secondary schools is declining year by year. But it is optimistic that the release of the second child and the comprehensive two child policy has made the number of births in the country grow steadily for several years, and will further promote the increase of the number of primary and secondary school students. In fact, in 2013 the national primary school in reading has been the number before the arrival of the first child in a reversal of the trend of decline and growth, and after two years have maintained this trend.

our conservative estimates, in 2020 the national compulsory education and high school enrollment will reach 170 million, growth of about 4 percentage points higher than in 2015. After 2020, all students who were born in 2004-2010 years of national birth low - age were all growing more significantly after their high school graduation.

statistics of the number of Chinese born population in figure 22010-2016 (unit: 10000 people)

overall, in the next ten years, the K12 extracurricular training industry will show a "rise in price".

and K12 as an educational institution phenomenon, we think today to chat in the business model of the trick, and the trick is how to solve the pain points and educational institutions, students and parents heart capture.

the following five core links we expand one by one.

1. enrolment and expansion model

at present, and the brand has entered the country 30 large and medium-sized city, each enter a city road expansion and admission way are quite guidelines to follow, step by step for the training camp to seize the city market.

into the new city, through the parent Gang to conduct social marketing

Xueersi one to two years before the establishment of solid teaching points in a city, the city will establish a special forum on the website to help parents, let parents help to break into the city, has become a platform for parents to collect information and share the indispensable. This platform will become my propaganda position.

first small range enrollment

the parents help the stage, and then began to try in the city


From: 学而思解密:如何让你欲罢不能?
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